GEORGE TOWN: The Malaysian property market is generally expected to remain stable in 2016 but could see a dip of 5-6% compared with 2015 based on the market trend that has been seeing gradual decreases since the second quarter of 2014.
According to Raine & Horne International senior partner Michael Geh, the first half of 2016 is expected to record a dip in transactions with the primary market dropping by about 5,000 transactions to about 20,000 transactions while the number of secondary property transactions will remain at 95,000.
“The total value of transactions for the first half of 2016 will also drop to about RM35 billion,” he said in a press statement last Friday.
Geh said the first quarter of 2015 saw a slight dip to 93,780 transactions worth RM38.99 billion before it continued on a downward slide to 92,881 transactions worth RM37.62 billion and 85,917 transactions worth RM37.51 billion for the second and third quarters respectively.
“In figures released by Napic, residential property transactions in Malaysia, out of the total property transactions, were gradually decreasing from the second quarter of 2014.
“Total residential property transacted was 59,656 units worth RM17.96 billion in the first quarter of 2015 and it went up very slightly to 59,947 units worth RM18.42 billion before it dropped in the third quarter to 57,662 units worth RM17.73 billion.
“The slight increase in the second quarter could be due to the gearing up in preparation for implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which took effect on April 1, 2015,”
Looking at the number of residential property transactions under the primary and secondary market, he noted that the secondary market had remained resilient while the primary market took a hit.
Geh said for the first half of 2015, a total 21,031 units worth RM8.05 billion were transacted for the primary market while 98,572 units worth RM28.33 billion were transacted in the secondary market bringing the total transactions to 119,603 units worth a total RM36.38 billion.
Therefore, he predicted that the second half of 2015 will see a total 25,000 units transacted in the primary market and about 95,000 units transacted in the secondary market, bringing the total residential transactions to about 120,000 units worth about RM44 billion.
“I am expecting the total transactions for 2015 to be about 239,603 units worth about RM80 billion,” he said.
Looking at the Penang property market, Geh said 2016 will see a plethora of affordable apartments available in the market and awaiting Advertising Permit and Developers Licence to be obtained.
He pointed out that such a large number of units available for sale in the market will drive the overall index prices down.
“We expect to see about 7,600 transactions for the second half of 2015 with a value of RM3.7 billion and making the total 2015 transaction to 6.8 billion,” Geh said.
As for the first half of 2016, he forecasted that Penang will see a total 7,500 residential units transacted worth of RM2.7 billion.
He expects the primary market will record about 1,200 transactions with the estimated value of RM500 million while the number of secondary property transactions will hover at 6,300 units with a total transaction value of RM2.2 billion for the first half of 2016.